Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Ouch...

Well yesterday was tough to swallow. figuring it was too marginal to chase, Adam and I, along with just about every other chaser in the world sat out of the tornadofest that was SE Colorado yesterday. Here is a picture taken by Roger Hill (www.stormchase.net/www.silverliningtours.com) of a tornado from a cyclical supercell over Baca County, Colorado yesterday. Never again will we be doubting the magic of Eastern Colorado...




In any event, rather than taking a chance yesterday, we hedged all of our bets on today, thinking it had potential to be a big tornado day. We ended up going to a Memorial day BBQ at one of Adam's family friend's lake front house in Lake Winnabego, MO, where we had a blast riding jet-ski's. It was my first time and I really enjoyed it. We made it all the way back to the dock without flipping over, then go figure, we tried to dock the jet ski and proceeded to flip right into the lake. Of course being the genius that I am, I didn't remove my one and only shirt before going on the jet ski, thus soaking it in the process.

So back to today. For a couple of days, today has looked like a half-way decent set-up on the GFS model, whereas the NAM model was a little less bullish. Well unbelievably, the GFS model, which generally in the short term is less accurate than the NAM is appearing to come to fruition today. As I write this, the Storm Prediction Center is in the process of upgrading today's risk to moderate, something we have not seen so far during our chase. They talk about the increased risk of Tornadoes, large hail and strong wind, mainly in IA ad NE. Iowa is yet to see a tornado this year, something that has never happened this late in the season since records began. We are hoping to change that today! So with that, we are gonna take off for somewhere near Beatrice, NE in about a half hour, which should leave us plenty of time before storm initiation. Beatrice should give us good road options in any direction on what could be a real good day. As always, there is plenty of bust potential today, but for me its the best setup we've had since the beginning of the trip. Tomorrow may hold some promise too, but it sure looks like our chance is today. Wish us luck!

PH count is now at 16.

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