It's been a fun ride, but this is gonna be my last post. For now at least, I may do it again when we go out with SLT in a couple of weeks, but we'll see. Either way, solo chase 2010 is now over. It's been a fun and exciting ride. I've learned a lot about weather as well as a lot about this country. The people out here are so incredibly polite and just plain nice. Life is so relaxed, people just don't seem to get hung up on crap the way we do in the northeast. That said...I miss home. Gonna be nice to get back home to my normal life.
Yesterday was probably the toughest day I've experienced since I've begun storm chasing. The set up was so dynamic. It was local. The chase country was flat and scenic. The only thing missing was storms. Our original target yesterday was a small town called Tecumseh in southeast Nebraska. We arrived in Tecumseh with the expectation that storms were going to explode rapidly. The atmosphere was incredibly unstable, to the point where you could feel it just being outside. It was brutally hot and tangibly humid, the kind of atmosphere where you would expect violent thunderstorms. Well...it just never happened. The cap was too strong. The cap is a layer of warm air a couple of thousand feet above ground level that suppresses condensation, thus not allowing clouds to form. Long story short, we "blue sky busted", as no storms fired in our target area. What an incredible disappointment it was. After waiting around for hours in Tecumseh, we called it a day around 6 pm, when the SPC issued a discussion that all but confirmed our fears that storms would not be occurring, or at least in a form that could produce tornadoes (a line of thunderstorms would go later, but nothing that would be remotely tornadic).
In any event, we went back to Adam's in Lee's Summit for the night, where we are again today. I leave tomorrow on a 645 am CST flight and will be home in the early afternoon.
I would like to extend my great thanks to Adam for making this all happen, as well as his family for graciously having me for the past three days. They have been so very hospitable to me, and I can't be grateful enough.
So the final statistics:
Confirmed tornadoes: 3
Possible tornadoes: 3
Supercells: 4
Largest hail (seen by me): Pea to penny size
Pizza Huts: 18
Well, that's it. Thank you and I hope you enjoyed reading my blog. I'll be sure to do it again next year.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Ouch...
Well yesterday was tough to swallow. figuring it was too marginal to chase, Adam and I, along with just about every other chaser in the world sat out of the tornadofest that was SE Colorado yesterday. Here is a picture taken by Roger Hill (www.stormchase.net/www.silverliningtours.com) of a tornado from a cyclical supercell over Baca County, Colorado yesterday. Never again will we be doubting the magic of Eastern Colorado...
In any event, rather than taking a chance yesterday, we hedged all of our bets on today, thinking it had potential to be a big tornado day. We ended up going to a Memorial day BBQ at one of Adam's family friend's lake front house in Lake Winnabego, MO, where we had a blast riding jet-ski's. It was my first time and I really enjoyed it. We made it all the way back to the dock without flipping over, then go figure, we tried to dock the jet ski and proceeded to flip right into the lake. Of course being the genius that I am, I didn't remove my one and only shirt before going on the jet ski, thus soaking it in the process.
So back to today. For a couple of days, today has looked like a half-way decent set-up on the GFS model, whereas the NAM model was a little less bullish. Well unbelievably, the GFS model, which generally in the short term is less accurate than the NAM is appearing to come to fruition today. As I write this, the Storm Prediction Center is in the process of upgrading today's risk to moderate, something we have not seen so far during our chase. They talk about the increased risk of Tornadoes, large hail and strong wind, mainly in IA ad NE. Iowa is yet to see a tornado this year, something that has never happened this late in the season since records began. We are hoping to change that today! So with that, we are gonna take off for somewhere near Beatrice, NE in about a half hour, which should leave us plenty of time before storm initiation. Beatrice should give us good road options in any direction on what could be a real good day. As always, there is plenty of bust potential today, but for me its the best setup we've had since the beginning of the trip. Tomorrow may hold some promise too, but it sure looks like our chance is today. Wish us luck!
PH count is now at 16.
In any event, rather than taking a chance yesterday, we hedged all of our bets on today, thinking it had potential to be a big tornado day. We ended up going to a Memorial day BBQ at one of Adam's family friend's lake front house in Lake Winnabego, MO, where we had a blast riding jet-ski's. It was my first time and I really enjoyed it. We made it all the way back to the dock without flipping over, then go figure, we tried to dock the jet ski and proceeded to flip right into the lake. Of course being the genius that I am, I didn't remove my one and only shirt before going on the jet ski, thus soaking it in the process.
So back to today. For a couple of days, today has looked like a half-way decent set-up on the GFS model, whereas the NAM model was a little less bullish. Well unbelievably, the GFS model, which generally in the short term is less accurate than the NAM is appearing to come to fruition today. As I write this, the Storm Prediction Center is in the process of upgrading today's risk to moderate, something we have not seen so far during our chase. They talk about the increased risk of Tornadoes, large hail and strong wind, mainly in IA ad NE. Iowa is yet to see a tornado this year, something that has never happened this late in the season since records began. We are hoping to change that today! So with that, we are gonna take off for somewhere near Beatrice, NE in about a half hour, which should leave us plenty of time before storm initiation. Beatrice should give us good road options in any direction on what could be a real good day. As always, there is plenty of bust potential today, but for me its the best setup we've had since the beginning of the trip. Tomorrow may hold some promise too, but it sure looks like our chance is today. Wish us luck!
PH count is now at 16.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Why I will no longer be watching storm chasers on the discovery channel...oh and the weather channel? Forget that...
First, a brief synopsis of yesterday. Yesterday we waited around North Platte then jetted up to Hyannis, NE in hopes of getting a nice storm to go. Storms exploded at roughly 21z (4 pm) just north of Hyannis. Contrary to what normally occurs, the storms were moving northwest, as that was the direction of the prevailing wind. Shear was not great yesterday, as was evident with the storm mode. We ended up "chasing" a massive high precipitation blob, full of monster hail and flooding rain up into Cherry County, Nebraska. For those of you not familiar with Cherry County, it is roughly the size of Rhode Island...and has one road. You read that right. One road. We sampled the storm a bit, but knowing that all it was gonna do was blast us with baseball hail, we decided to get outta dodge before that one road was overtaken by the storm. We ended up going back to the same hotel in North Platte for the night.
One big gripe from yesterday though. It is totally clear that there are some people out there who are willing to do anything for the almighty dollar...even put other innocent people in danger. I'm talking about you Tony Laubach. Tony is a fairly well respected chaser based outta Denver who is a main chaser on the discovery channel's "Storm Chasers". Up until yesterday I had no reason to have anything other than the utmost respect for the guy. In fact, two posts ago I posted a link to his video from last Tuesday. Well, I can no longer say that.
While trying to approach the storm, which was cozily nestled in the scenic sand hills of Nebraska, we found ourselves on a highway with a speed limit of 55. Now this is important as being that it was in the sand hills, the highway was full of very sudden twists and turns. We felt that a fairly safe speed on this highway was 60 to 65 miles per hour. While doing a speed somewhere in that range, Tony and his three car/van caravan decided it best to tailgate us until we were doing almost 80, at which point they got sick of being behind us, and decided to pass us, scowls on their faces. Fine. Whatever.
So we finally get on the storm, where in order to assure ourselves of not only a nice view, but a decent escape route as well, we pull onto some kind of driveway that lead up to a real nice house on top of a hill. We stop their briefly to watch the storm get closer. Upon noticing the monster hail core beginning to come down the road in front of us, we decide it best to turn around and make our escape. Upon turning around we were pleasantly surprised to see Tony and all of his cameramen standing in the middle of the road, blocking our exit. They finally decided to allow us to go through, and we were able to get out just in time. Fine. Whatever.
It was this last straw though that finally broke the camels back. As if it was not enough that they had almost had an accident with us getting to the storm, and then almost forcing us to get stuck in a violent hail core, Tony and his "twistex" group decided to once again tailgate us through the sand hills...AWAY FROM THE DAMN STORM! At this point, we were no longer even chasing. We were merely heading back for the night. But apparently that didn't matter to Tony and his crew. No, they needed to make sure they got back to where ever they had to go faster than the speed of sound. At one point, we found ourselves going 87 miles per hour with three cars trying to pass us! Finally they did pass us...at which point they probably did close to 100 miles per hour back into the small town of Mullen, NE, where they were finally forced to slow down. I can tell you this. After seeing what the people on that show are like in real life (I already hated Reed Timmer, who is the big guy on the show), I don't think I'll be watching anymore, something that given how much I enjoyed the show, truly upsets me to write.
So I guess I'm done ranting...for now...
So today was strictly a travel day. Woke up this morning in North Platte after the cold front went through to mid 60's temps and a brisk north-northwest wind. Not exactly conducive to severe weather to say the least. Not seeing much tomorrow (although I wouldn't be surprised see a couple of storms real late in the Texas panhandle tomorrow), we decided to head to Adam's house (big thanks to him and his family for having me) in Lee's Summit, MO (near Kansas City) for a couple of days. The rest of our chase looks like it's gonna be further east than where we've been, so it puts us in good position for what could be a couple of good days to end the chase. Tuesday and Wednesday appear to have great potential, but could go the other way real quick. We'd obviously love to squeeze another good day in before the end, but having seen three, maybe more tornadoes, as well as about five supercells, I really can not complain about the trip. I really like what the GFS does with the wind profiles on Tuesday, so hopefully that can come to fruition. One person on a storm chase board that I am on likened the set-up Tuesday to May 22, 2004, when a 2.5 mile wide tornado touched down in Hallam, NE. That wouldn't suck.
Before I go, its time for one more rant.
I have to say though over the last couple of days I have learned not to trust anything supposed severe weather expert Dr. Greg Forbes says. Dr. Forbes is the "severe weather expert" for the weather channel, and is fairly well respected in the meteorological community. The reason I am so upset with Dr. Forbes is this. Every day for the past week or so, on his Facebook, Dr. Forbes has talked about possible tornadoes in a large number of states, including some in places where the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center outlines as areas where storms would not even occur. Moreover, Dr. Forbes has for two days now talked about a possible tornado outbreak on Wednesday in this area, and then ever more interestingly, in NEW JERSEY on Thursday. That is just not going to happen. NONE of the models show anything conducive to a tornado outbreak for either of those days. What's more, very few of the NWS hazardous weather outlooks for those areas even talk about severe thunderstorms.
Now Dr. Forbes is in a position where it is his responsibility to give a good forecast without causing any kind of unnecessary nervousness. What he does on these facebook updates is incredibly irresponsible. He broad-brushes multiple areas where tornadoes will be possible, rarely with tornadoes actually occurring. To insinuate that a tornado outbreak is even possible, in an area where all it will do is cause people to become scared is not fair to his viewers and followers. People on Facebook are already starting to become nervous about an outbreak in their area.
There will be no tornado outbreak on Wednesday nor on Thursday. If we see even ONE tornado in NJ on Thursday I will be INCREDIBLY surprised.
As a chaser, god knows I hope he is correct in his saying that tornadoes will occur on those days, but as someone who can make a forecast, even at my level of ability, I know he is incorrect. Dr. Forbes may have once been great...but now he is clearly burnt out. Time for good ol' Doc Forbes to hang em up.
FINALLY...one last important thing. PH count is up to 15. Only seen one buffet though :(
One big gripe from yesterday though. It is totally clear that there are some people out there who are willing to do anything for the almighty dollar...even put other innocent people in danger. I'm talking about you Tony Laubach. Tony is a fairly well respected chaser based outta Denver who is a main chaser on the discovery channel's "Storm Chasers". Up until yesterday I had no reason to have anything other than the utmost respect for the guy. In fact, two posts ago I posted a link to his video from last Tuesday. Well, I can no longer say that.
While trying to approach the storm, which was cozily nestled in the scenic sand hills of Nebraska, we found ourselves on a highway with a speed limit of 55. Now this is important as being that it was in the sand hills, the highway was full of very sudden twists and turns. We felt that a fairly safe speed on this highway was 60 to 65 miles per hour. While doing a speed somewhere in that range, Tony and his three car/van caravan decided it best to tailgate us until we were doing almost 80, at which point they got sick of being behind us, and decided to pass us, scowls on their faces. Fine. Whatever.
So we finally get on the storm, where in order to assure ourselves of not only a nice view, but a decent escape route as well, we pull onto some kind of driveway that lead up to a real nice house on top of a hill. We stop their briefly to watch the storm get closer. Upon noticing the monster hail core beginning to come down the road in front of us, we decide it best to turn around and make our escape. Upon turning around we were pleasantly surprised to see Tony and all of his cameramen standing in the middle of the road, blocking our exit. They finally decided to allow us to go through, and we were able to get out just in time. Fine. Whatever.
It was this last straw though that finally broke the camels back. As if it was not enough that they had almost had an accident with us getting to the storm, and then almost forcing us to get stuck in a violent hail core, Tony and his "twistex" group decided to once again tailgate us through the sand hills...AWAY FROM THE DAMN STORM! At this point, we were no longer even chasing. We were merely heading back for the night. But apparently that didn't matter to Tony and his crew. No, they needed to make sure they got back to where ever they had to go faster than the speed of sound. At one point, we found ourselves going 87 miles per hour with three cars trying to pass us! Finally they did pass us...at which point they probably did close to 100 miles per hour back into the small town of Mullen, NE, where they were finally forced to slow down. I can tell you this. After seeing what the people on that show are like in real life (I already hated Reed Timmer, who is the big guy on the show), I don't think I'll be watching anymore, something that given how much I enjoyed the show, truly upsets me to write.
So I guess I'm done ranting...for now...
So today was strictly a travel day. Woke up this morning in North Platte after the cold front went through to mid 60's temps and a brisk north-northwest wind. Not exactly conducive to severe weather to say the least. Not seeing much tomorrow (although I wouldn't be surprised see a couple of storms real late in the Texas panhandle tomorrow), we decided to head to Adam's house (big thanks to him and his family for having me) in Lee's Summit, MO (near Kansas City) for a couple of days. The rest of our chase looks like it's gonna be further east than where we've been, so it puts us in good position for what could be a couple of good days to end the chase. Tuesday and Wednesday appear to have great potential, but could go the other way real quick. We'd obviously love to squeeze another good day in before the end, but having seen three, maybe more tornadoes, as well as about five supercells, I really can not complain about the trip. I really like what the GFS does with the wind profiles on Tuesday, so hopefully that can come to fruition. One person on a storm chase board that I am on likened the set-up Tuesday to May 22, 2004, when a 2.5 mile wide tornado touched down in Hallam, NE. That wouldn't suck.
Before I go, its time for one more rant.
I have to say though over the last couple of days I have learned not to trust anything supposed severe weather expert Dr. Greg Forbes says. Dr. Forbes is the "severe weather expert" for the weather channel, and is fairly well respected in the meteorological community. The reason I am so upset with Dr. Forbes is this. Every day for the past week or so, on his Facebook, Dr. Forbes has talked about possible tornadoes in a large number of states, including some in places where the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center outlines as areas where storms would not even occur. Moreover, Dr. Forbes has for two days now talked about a possible tornado outbreak on Wednesday in this area, and then ever more interestingly, in NEW JERSEY on Thursday. That is just not going to happen. NONE of the models show anything conducive to a tornado outbreak for either of those days. What's more, very few of the NWS hazardous weather outlooks for those areas even talk about severe thunderstorms.
Now Dr. Forbes is in a position where it is his responsibility to give a good forecast without causing any kind of unnecessary nervousness. What he does on these facebook updates is incredibly irresponsible. He broad-brushes multiple areas where tornadoes will be possible, rarely with tornadoes actually occurring. To insinuate that a tornado outbreak is even possible, in an area where all it will do is cause people to become scared is not fair to his viewers and followers. People on Facebook are already starting to become nervous about an outbreak in their area.
There will be no tornado outbreak on Wednesday nor on Thursday. If we see even ONE tornado in NJ on Thursday I will be INCREDIBLY surprised.
As a chaser, god knows I hope he is correct in his saying that tornadoes will occur on those days, but as someone who can make a forecast, even at my level of ability, I know he is incorrect. Dr. Forbes may have once been great...but now he is clearly burnt out. Time for good ol' Doc Forbes to hang em up.
FINALLY...one last important thing. PH count is up to 15. Only seen one buffet though :(
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Waiting...
Sitting here waiting for today's convective initiation in North Platte, Nebraska. Stayed here last night after about a four hour drive from Denver. Today is looking pretty marginal. Storms will go, but only time will tell if they will be supercells. Adam and my current thinking is no, but Vortex 2 just posted on there facebook that sups are a possibility today, so we are hoping they are correct. Tornado threat looks pretty damn low today, but who knows, maybe we can get an accident.
In unrelated news, it is time to fire Jerry Manuel. There is no excuse for taking Johan out of a game where he is pitching a shut out throw 8 complete innings. And to take him out for another lefty? Why?
Finally, a black widow just crawled into our car. Adam proceeded to kill it with his shoe. Pretty creepy to see one in real life.
Anyway, I'll post anything that may happen later.
In unrelated news, it is time to fire Jerry Manuel. There is no excuse for taking Johan out of a game where he is pitching a shut out throw 8 complete innings. And to take him out for another lefty? Why?
Finally, a black widow just crawled into our car. Adam proceeded to kill it with his shoe. Pretty creepy to see one in real life.
Anyway, I'll post anything that may happen later.
Friday, May 28, 2010
Hail from the other day
Check out this video (not mine) of hail from the storm on the 26th. Glad we didn't try to get into it. Wouldn't have ended well.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPSWQTYrzpQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPSWQTYrzpQ
Thursday, May 27, 2010
What to do on a down day...
Definitely a down day today. Originally we had been looking at Montana today, but I'm glad we didn't go. At this moment (8.25 MDT) storms are just starting to pop up there, so anything that may mature is gonna do whatever it's gonna do after dark.
In any event, we woke up today with nothing to do. So we figured we'd try to take in the Rockies game. Found some $20 tickets in right field and got there just before the start of the game. For a couple of guys going on a vacation based on weather, you'd think we'd have realized that it was gonna be 97 degrees in Denver today. Well we didn't.
Watched seven innings of the game and just couldn't stand the heat anymore. Being a mile high, you're a mile closer to the sun...something we learned the hard way. I am ROASTED. Burnt to a crisp. Extra well done. Fried. You get it.
Got back to the hotel and chilled for a while, before heading to get this...NOT A PIZZA PLACE...for dinner. We went to a place called Noodles and Company, a great pasta place that apparently is a nicer chain place here in the midwest. Kinda reminded me of Panera but a lot better. If you ever have a chance definitely hit it up.
Tomorrow is again kinda meh. Might be a chase day in Western Nebraska or Northeast Colorado. IF a storm can go up, it will probably do something good, the question tomorrow is really gonna be initiation, at least this far south. Saturday still looks quite good. A bit conditional again however, similar to tomorrow. IF...IF a storm can go, it should be able to spin hard, but will a storm go? We can only hope at this point. Either way we plan on ending up in North Platte, NE tomorrow night, as it gives us nice options for Saturday. It also won't be too far from any storms that we may get tomorrow.
Added two more huts to the list today. 10.
In any event, we woke up today with nothing to do. So we figured we'd try to take in the Rockies game. Found some $20 tickets in right field and got there just before the start of the game. For a couple of guys going on a vacation based on weather, you'd think we'd have realized that it was gonna be 97 degrees in Denver today. Well we didn't.
Watched seven innings of the game and just couldn't stand the heat anymore. Being a mile high, you're a mile closer to the sun...something we learned the hard way. I am ROASTED. Burnt to a crisp. Extra well done. Fried. You get it.
Got back to the hotel and chilled for a while, before heading to get this...NOT A PIZZA PLACE...for dinner. We went to a place called Noodles and Company, a great pasta place that apparently is a nicer chain place here in the midwest. Kinda reminded me of Panera but a lot better. If you ever have a chance definitely hit it up.
Tomorrow is again kinda meh. Might be a chase day in Western Nebraska or Northeast Colorado. IF a storm can go up, it will probably do something good, the question tomorrow is really gonna be initiation, at least this far south. Saturday still looks quite good. A bit conditional again however, similar to tomorrow. IF...IF a storm can go, it should be able to spin hard, but will a storm go? We can only hope at this point. Either way we plan on ending up in North Platte, NE tomorrow night, as it gives us nice options for Saturday. It also won't be too far from any storms that we may get tomorrow.
Added two more huts to the list today. 10.
off day
Well today is looking like a down day. Storms are gonna go but they'll be too far north for us to get them. Gonna take in the Rockies game instead. Tomorrow will probably be a driving day, for a potentially big day Saturday.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Day 2...
Today was another fun day. Started out in Denver with the intention of playing the supercells that were expected to form in NE Colorado in an area of decent shear and good instability. Moisture was expected to be worse than yesterday, however since we were at such a high altitude, it wasn't thought to be a problem.
Our original target was Limon, Colorado, which we thought was a nice middle ground in case we needed to drop south or fly north. We left Denver as convection was beginning to occur. We figured that any storms that formed that early (around 1 pm) would go up and die, allowing the real show to be later on. We knew it would be a mid-afternoon event, and didn't realize how early the storms would actually go up. As we were driving away from Denver, we noticed just in front of us a large cumulus tower going up. It didn't look great, and as we got under it it gave us a little rain and nothing more. We continued on past the "storm", still assuming it was just gonna die. We could not have been more incorrect. About 10 minutes after leaving the storm, we noticed on radar that it had acquired a hail signature, which with every subsequent scan strengthened. We got about a half hour away from the storm when we noticed it was beginning on radar to take on the presentation of a supercell. Still figuring it was gonna die, we continued on. We briefly considered turning around, but decided against it. What a mistake.
Just as the storm really fell out of our immediate range, the forest tornado warning was issued. Five minutes later, we found out that right over Denver International airport...roughly 17 seconds from where we began the day...we got confirmation of a tornado. Ugh.
We get to Limon and stop at a Flying J. The very same Flying J it felt like we spent 10 days at last year on tour. Off in the distance we notice the storm is just looking fantastic. We couldn't just sit around anymore...had to go after it.
We flew up highway 71 from Limon to I-76 to Ft. Morgan, Colorado. Off in the distance we watched in horror as the storm put down either a very low wall cloud or a huge tornado. We're really not sure. In either case we FINALLY got on the storm and it was VERY high based. Way too high to put down a tornado, although not for lack of trying. It cycled and cycled for no less than 6-7 hours, rapping up then becoming more disorganized, over and over and over. Finally we kind of realized that this storm was not ever gonna put one down, however the structure of this supercell was SPECTACULAR. Easily the best I've ever seen. It was a beautifully striated stack of plates (at one point I counted 7 or more "plates"), complete with multiple inflow jets, and the occasional wall cloud. It spat out all kinds of lightning, intra-cloud to cloud to ground, and there was a report of tennis ball and larger hail. We also heard that in some places there was so much hail on the ground it was being shoveled like snow. Not at all surprising considering this storm was moving only 10 miles per hour. The hail core itself was so dense you couldn't see through it. Just incredible.
(an amazing link to some images of today's hail storm:
http://www.tornadoeskick.com/2010/05/3707)
We finally blew the storm off after being on it for so long, having only seen it move about 40 miles. As we drove away we observed a gorgeous corkscrewing updraft and liberty bell type mesocyclone.
On the way back to Denver, where we are staying once again tonight, we were treated to more storms which also produced just brilliant lightning, some of which was incredibly close to the car.
As a small aside, this storm was literally in the EXACT same place as some storms we saw last year, which was kind of cool.
AAAAAAAnyway.....
After about an hour drive back we are now in the comfort inn and suites in Westminster, Colorado. Beautiful room for an even more beautiful price. So if you're ever in need of a nice economy room in beautiful Westminster, you know where to go. Tell 'em Alex sent you. Brandon at the desk will take care of the rest.
Tomorrow looks meh. ND and MT look alright but its a long and expensive way to go for a fairly marginal set up. Gonna see if we can eek out a storm in maybe the Nebraska panhandle.
Now for a couple of photos, again, courtesy of Adam Penney.
Notice the "stacked plates"
more plates
VERY dense hail and rain core
Mostly hail, some rain. The whiter appearance indicates the presence of significant amounts of hail. This was probably fairly large hail. We didn't want any part of that core.
Finally...added two more pizza huts to the count today, bringing the total for two official chase days to nine.
EDITED TO ADD: I don't feel quite so bad about missing the "tornado". Just saw pictures and it wasn't much of anything. In fact, the only way the initially reporting chaser "knew" it was a tornado was because debris...plastic bags...was falling in its wake. Weak.
Our original target was Limon, Colorado, which we thought was a nice middle ground in case we needed to drop south or fly north. We left Denver as convection was beginning to occur. We figured that any storms that formed that early (around 1 pm) would go up and die, allowing the real show to be later on. We knew it would be a mid-afternoon event, and didn't realize how early the storms would actually go up. As we were driving away from Denver, we noticed just in front of us a large cumulus tower going up. It didn't look great, and as we got under it it gave us a little rain and nothing more. We continued on past the "storm", still assuming it was just gonna die. We could not have been more incorrect. About 10 minutes after leaving the storm, we noticed on radar that it had acquired a hail signature, which with every subsequent scan strengthened. We got about a half hour away from the storm when we noticed it was beginning on radar to take on the presentation of a supercell. Still figuring it was gonna die, we continued on. We briefly considered turning around, but decided against it. What a mistake.
Just as the storm really fell out of our immediate range, the forest tornado warning was issued. Five minutes later, we found out that right over Denver International airport...roughly 17 seconds from where we began the day...we got confirmation of a tornado. Ugh.
We get to Limon and stop at a Flying J. The very same Flying J it felt like we spent 10 days at last year on tour. Off in the distance we notice the storm is just looking fantastic. We couldn't just sit around anymore...had to go after it.
We flew up highway 71 from Limon to I-76 to Ft. Morgan, Colorado. Off in the distance we watched in horror as the storm put down either a very low wall cloud or a huge tornado. We're really not sure. In either case we FINALLY got on the storm and it was VERY high based. Way too high to put down a tornado, although not for lack of trying. It cycled and cycled for no less than 6-7 hours, rapping up then becoming more disorganized, over and over and over. Finally we kind of realized that this storm was not ever gonna put one down, however the structure of this supercell was SPECTACULAR. Easily the best I've ever seen. It was a beautifully striated stack of plates (at one point I counted 7 or more "plates"), complete with multiple inflow jets, and the occasional wall cloud. It spat out all kinds of lightning, intra-cloud to cloud to ground, and there was a report of tennis ball and larger hail. We also heard that in some places there was so much hail on the ground it was being shoveled like snow. Not at all surprising considering this storm was moving only 10 miles per hour. The hail core itself was so dense you couldn't see through it. Just incredible.
(an amazing link to some images of today's hail storm:
http://www.tornadoeskick.com/2010/05/3707)
We finally blew the storm off after being on it for so long, having only seen it move about 40 miles. As we drove away we observed a gorgeous corkscrewing updraft and liberty bell type mesocyclone.
On the way back to Denver, where we are staying once again tonight, we were treated to more storms which also produced just brilliant lightning, some of which was incredibly close to the car.
As a small aside, this storm was literally in the EXACT same place as some storms we saw last year, which was kind of cool.
AAAAAAAnyway.....
After about an hour drive back we are now in the comfort inn and suites in Westminster, Colorado. Beautiful room for an even more beautiful price. So if you're ever in need of a nice economy room in beautiful Westminster, you know where to go. Tell 'em Alex sent you. Brandon at the desk will take care of the rest.
Tomorrow looks meh. ND and MT look alright but its a long and expensive way to go for a fairly marginal set up. Gonna see if we can eek out a storm in maybe the Nebraska panhandle.
Now for a couple of photos, again, courtesy of Adam Penney.
Notice the "stacked plates"
more plates
VERY dense hail and rain core
Mostly hail, some rain. The whiter appearance indicates the presence of significant amounts of hail. This was probably fairly large hail. We didn't want any part of that core.
Finally...added two more pizza huts to the count today, bringing the total for two official chase days to nine.
EDITED TO ADD: I don't feel quite so bad about missing the "tornado". Just saw pictures and it wasn't much of anything. In fact, the only way the initially reporting chaser "knew" it was a tornado was because debris...plastic bags...was falling in its wake. Weak.
What more can I say?
First things first: All photos are courtesy of my chase Partner Adam Penney.
Now on to the good stuff...
I guess day one was pretty good...three tornadoes and beautifully sculpted supercell we saw as it crossed into Kansas from Colorado. Eh...
We started the day targeting Springfield, Colorado, which is in the southeast corner of the state. We got to Dodge City, Ks and ate lunch, then proceeded on to our target area. We got a little rain and hail from some pop up cells along the way but didn't make much of it. We sat in Springfield for a bit as we watched some crapvection go up to our east. Figuring nothing was going to happen back where we were (we were wrong, storms did fire later and put down a nice tornado) so we headed back east. As we were heading east, we noticed the first tornado warnings on a storm up north along the border. Lucky for us, the storm was barely moving at all, so we were able to catch it. By the time we got there it looked beautiful, with a nice wall cloud and everything. We got out to watch the storm and proceeded to get blasted by outflow...which meant the storm was dead.
Wrong.
We were heading away to try to drop south to where we had been, as a nice cell went up over there, when we looked over our shoulder and saw a beautifully striated wall cloud and funnel poking out from under it. We stopped and watched as it dropped a nice stove pipe tornado.
The first tornado then dissipated, and we watched the storm cycle a bit, before putting down an even more robust, beautifully contrasted silver cone, complete with cloud to ground lightning strikes in the background.
Finally, this wall cloud looked finished, but a new one was developing off to its east, so we rushed east to meet up with it. Though I'm not sure, I think I saw another cone tornado off in the distance. A minute or two later, the storm dropped a GORGEOUS white rope tornado which had amazing motion up and down the tube. Unfortunately, we were not able to get any pictures of that tube.
After it dissipated, we continued on the storm as it looked like it was gonna cycle once more. However, the storm quickly became rain wrapped and turned the tables on us, as we were chased by a hail core that we found out later contained baseballs. I'm fairly sure I saw another fat cone/possible wedge tornado about a mile behind us, but in our haste we were unable to confirm it.
We left the storm after this to try to catch another storm as it popped up. Our first storm was simply too dangerous to chase as it was totally HP at this point. Our new storm quickly died, and we decided at this point to get back to Denver rather than chase an HP tornadic supercell after dark. The storm did cycle a few more times and put down more tubes, but I can't say I regret leaving it.
Finished the day with a beautiful mammatus display in Colorado. I'll get a picture of that up asap.
Not bad for my first chase day ever without a group.
Today looks interesting, as tornadic supercells are once again possible in Eastern Colorado. Any supercell that goes today has the possibility of dropping tornadoes as well as large hail. Gonna be another fun one.
Total mileage yesterday: 678.20
Total so far: 881.30
Oh one last thing. 7 pizza huts so far.
Now on to the good stuff...
I guess day one was pretty good...three tornadoes and beautifully sculpted supercell we saw as it crossed into Kansas from Colorado. Eh...
We started the day targeting Springfield, Colorado, which is in the southeast corner of the state. We got to Dodge City, Ks and ate lunch, then proceeded on to our target area. We got a little rain and hail from some pop up cells along the way but didn't make much of it. We sat in Springfield for a bit as we watched some crapvection go up to our east. Figuring nothing was going to happen back where we were (we were wrong, storms did fire later and put down a nice tornado) so we headed back east. As we were heading east, we noticed the first tornado warnings on a storm up north along the border. Lucky for us, the storm was barely moving at all, so we were able to catch it. By the time we got there it looked beautiful, with a nice wall cloud and everything. We got out to watch the storm and proceeded to get blasted by outflow...which meant the storm was dead.
Wrong.
We were heading away to try to drop south to where we had been, as a nice cell went up over there, when we looked over our shoulder and saw a beautifully striated wall cloud and funnel poking out from under it. We stopped and watched as it dropped a nice stove pipe tornado.
The first tornado then dissipated, and we watched the storm cycle a bit, before putting down an even more robust, beautifully contrasted silver cone, complete with cloud to ground lightning strikes in the background.
Finally, this wall cloud looked finished, but a new one was developing off to its east, so we rushed east to meet up with it. Though I'm not sure, I think I saw another cone tornado off in the distance. A minute or two later, the storm dropped a GORGEOUS white rope tornado which had amazing motion up and down the tube. Unfortunately, we were not able to get any pictures of that tube.
After it dissipated, we continued on the storm as it looked like it was gonna cycle once more. However, the storm quickly became rain wrapped and turned the tables on us, as we were chased by a hail core that we found out later contained baseballs. I'm fairly sure I saw another fat cone/possible wedge tornado about a mile behind us, but in our haste we were unable to confirm it.
We left the storm after this to try to catch another storm as it popped up. Our first storm was simply too dangerous to chase as it was totally HP at this point. Our new storm quickly died, and we decided at this point to get back to Denver rather than chase an HP tornadic supercell after dark. The storm did cycle a few more times and put down more tubes, but I can't say I regret leaving it.
Finished the day with a beautiful mammatus display in Colorado. I'll get a picture of that up asap.
Not bad for my first chase day ever without a group.
Today looks interesting, as tornadic supercells are once again possible in Eastern Colorado. Any supercell that goes today has the possibility of dropping tornadoes as well as large hail. Gonna be another fun one.
Total mileage yesterday: 678.20
Total so far: 881.30
Oh one last thing. 7 pizza huts so far.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Chase day 1
Well its finally here. Chase day one. Headed outta Wichita this morning on a path for Dodge City. Stopped for lunch in Dodge City at the Pizza hut (where by the way they do NOT screw around) and decided we're gonna head on further west to SE Colorado, near Springfield. Today is looking quite promising for supercells and potentially tornadoes, especially in that SE colorado area into perhaps SW Kansas. Probably gonna stay in Denver tonight, as suddenly tomorrow looks good as well. Then up to Montana for Thursday and potentially friday before what looks like a potential big day on Saturday, where the SPC outlines a possible significant severe episode. Not too bad for a chase that looked like crap three days ago. Let's hope it continues!
Monday, May 24, 2010
Stopped over...
Stopped in Memphis waiting for my plane to KC. Probably gonna head to Wichita tonight for what's looking like a fairly good day in the Texas Panhandle area tomorrow. Beautiful chase country...
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Leaving tomorrow
So I'm heading out the door tomorrow and flying into Kansas city to get the chase started. I could not be more excited. The pattern in starting to look a bit better than before, with a couple of real nice looking chase days throughout the period. Day one looks pretty interesting near Dodge City, Kansas, where with each model run the conditions look better and better for severe storms. Moisture and CAPE are piling in and there looks like there will be some decent directional and speed shear. The NAM breaks out precip sometime between 21z and 0z, with what I believe will be a supercell. Hopefully that comes to fruition. Time will tell I suppose. Time will tell.
Stay tuned...
Stay tuned...
Friday, May 21, 2010
Three days...
Well, three days til I leave for KC and things are looking a little different. This morning's 12z GFS looked absolutely horrendous. Depressing even. Flow is all but gone throughout the whole period. Honestly, I think the GFS is underplaying the flow, as the trajectory associated with the trough would probably allude to greater flow than is progged.
The 12z ECMWF however is more encouraging. It appears to be moving the system in question a smidge further east than the GFS, something that obviously would work in our favor. Hopefully that is a trend that can continue. It also shies away from keeping monster ridge in place for an extended period of time. Also very good. The off hour 18z GFS appears to be coming on board with this EC solution. Hopefully it can continue to move east and kill that ridge in subsequent runs. We shall see.
The 12z ECMWF however is more encouraging. It appears to be moving the system in question a smidge further east than the GFS, something that obviously would work in our favor. Hopefully that is a trend that can continue. It also shies away from keeping monster ridge in place for an extended period of time. Also very good. The off hour 18z GFS appears to be coming on board with this EC solution. Hopefully it can continue to move east and kill that ridge in subsequent runs. We shall see.
T-minus three and a half days
So this year I've decided I'm gonna try to blog my chase. I say this every year and never come through, but I feel as though for my first solo chase I owe it to myself to do this. First, need to throw a BIG thanks out there to my partner Adam Penney. Without him and his incredible generosity and enthusiasm, none of this would be happening.
Anyway, on to the fun stuff...the forecast...
Bleak. Well, not totally, but the way its looking as of now, we won't be seeing any high risk days. Who knows though, we may get lucky. The devil is always in the details in the long term (and often short term), and most forecasts aren't slam dunks. This chasecation is definitely going to test my and Adam's ability to nitpick for details and make a solid forecast. This far out that is tough however, as models are rarely accurate more than a few days out. What you can look for is a general pattern in the wind fields, especially at the 500 mb level. Ideally, what you wanna see is a nice trough with strong Southwesterly flow at 500 mb, with the winds backing more South-southeasterly as you approach the surface. Well, we certainly have the SW flow for whats looking like the majority of the trip (assuming you believe the GFS and ECMWF models), only problem is, that flow is set pretty well west of where we need it to be to chase. Right now it looks like the best flow will be over the Rocky mountains...obviously not where we want it. Still three and a half days until the first chase day, so things can and more than likely will change (hopefully in our favor), as models tend to flip flop quite often. Two days ago it was looking like we were gonna be seeing potentially potent chase days almost every day throughout the trip. Now...well not so much.
So here's my chase day one forecast, albeit nine LEGIT model runs out (off hour runs not counted) as per the GFS...
Gotta say I'm pretty happy with central Nebraska on day one. By 0z a small branch of mid 30's to 40 kts of SW 500 mb flow will be sitting on top of 25-30 kts of SE 850 mb flow. In response to a 1000 mb surface low in NE Colorado, 20 kts of SE surface flow should be present. Moisture will not be an issue with 65-70ºF dewpoints at the surface and 15ºC dewpoints at 850 mb. There is also a what appears to be a Dryline bulge in the surface dews in Western Nebraska, leading me to believe there is something there that could enhance the shear locally. It's not a terribly tight DL, but it's something. All this will result in 2500+ J of CAPE which is MORE than enough to get a nice storm going. The GFS also breaks out a nice isolated area of precip right in the middle of where I think the best parameters will set up...more than likely a supercell in my opinion. I don't think capping will be an issue with roughly 7ºC at 700 mb. In fact, I think it will remained just capped enough to allow for one nice isolated storm to occur, which obviously works in our favor.
Two things I am seeing that I'm not particularly thrilled about. First is the potentially anemic 700 mb flow. At about 20 kts, I'm not sure if that will do. We shall see I suppose. The other may be more problematic. I am only seeing mid 70s surface temps near my target. Not sure that will be enough heating to get things moving. That in mind, the GFS may be over doing the CAPE.
One other totally problematic issue is that if the storm(s) move a bit further north and or northeast, they could end up in infamous cherry county, NE...home of ONE major road. No roads=no chasing. Learned that the hard way last year as we were forced to blow off what became a beautiful supercell due to no road options. Ugh.
ANYWAY
Will this be a big tornado day? As it stands now...No. Will things change? Yes. Right now I'm gonna remain optimistic and just hope for the best.
Anyway, on to the fun stuff...the forecast...
Bleak. Well, not totally, but the way its looking as of now, we won't be seeing any high risk days. Who knows though, we may get lucky. The devil is always in the details in the long term (and often short term), and most forecasts aren't slam dunks. This chasecation is definitely going to test my and Adam's ability to nitpick for details and make a solid forecast. This far out that is tough however, as models are rarely accurate more than a few days out. What you can look for is a general pattern in the wind fields, especially at the 500 mb level. Ideally, what you wanna see is a nice trough with strong Southwesterly flow at 500 mb, with the winds backing more South-southeasterly as you approach the surface. Well, we certainly have the SW flow for whats looking like the majority of the trip (assuming you believe the GFS and ECMWF models), only problem is, that flow is set pretty well west of where we need it to be to chase. Right now it looks like the best flow will be over the Rocky mountains...obviously not where we want it. Still three and a half days until the first chase day, so things can and more than likely will change (hopefully in our favor), as models tend to flip flop quite often. Two days ago it was looking like we were gonna be seeing potentially potent chase days almost every day throughout the trip. Now...well not so much.
So here's my chase day one forecast, albeit nine LEGIT model runs out (off hour runs not counted) as per the GFS...
Gotta say I'm pretty happy with central Nebraska on day one. By 0z a small branch of mid 30's to 40 kts of SW 500 mb flow will be sitting on top of 25-30 kts of SE 850 mb flow. In response to a 1000 mb surface low in NE Colorado, 20 kts of SE surface flow should be present. Moisture will not be an issue with 65-70ºF dewpoints at the surface and 15ºC dewpoints at 850 mb. There is also a what appears to be a Dryline bulge in the surface dews in Western Nebraska, leading me to believe there is something there that could enhance the shear locally. It's not a terribly tight DL, but it's something. All this will result in 2500+ J of CAPE which is MORE than enough to get a nice storm going. The GFS also breaks out a nice isolated area of precip right in the middle of where I think the best parameters will set up...more than likely a supercell in my opinion. I don't think capping will be an issue with roughly 7ºC at 700 mb. In fact, I think it will remained just capped enough to allow for one nice isolated storm to occur, which obviously works in our favor.
Two things I am seeing that I'm not particularly thrilled about. First is the potentially anemic 700 mb flow. At about 20 kts, I'm not sure if that will do. We shall see I suppose. The other may be more problematic. I am only seeing mid 70s surface temps near my target. Not sure that will be enough heating to get things moving. That in mind, the GFS may be over doing the CAPE.
One other totally problematic issue is that if the storm(s) move a bit further north and or northeast, they could end up in infamous cherry county, NE...home of ONE major road. No roads=no chasing. Learned that the hard way last year as we were forced to blow off what became a beautiful supercell due to no road options. Ugh.
ANYWAY
Will this be a big tornado day? As it stands now...No. Will things change? Yes. Right now I'm gonna remain optimistic and just hope for the best.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)